{
  "elo_only_logistic": {
    "log_loss": 0.9077886799186956,
    "brier": 0.5350324761902275,
    "accuracy": 0.5959909072122339
  },
  "goal_model_full": {
    "log_loss": 0.8692201897713608,
    "brier": 0.5109258177575675,
    "accuracy": 0.6028104980367844
  },
  "lift": {
    "log_loss_lift_goal_over_elo": 0.038568490147334766,
    "brier_lift_goal_over_elo": 0.024106658432660022
  },
  "note": "Note: venue/squad-value effects apply at simulation time (as Elo bumps), not at model training time. See sensitivity.json for impact of those Elo bumps on tournament outcomes."
}