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43.6332, "lon": -79.4185, "altitude_m": 76, "climate": "mild", "tz": "America/Toronto" }, { "city": "Vancouver", "country": "Canada", "stadium": "BC Place", "lat": 49.2768, "lon": -123.1119, "altitude_m": 0, "climate": "mild_indoor", "tz": "America/Vancouver" }, { "city": "Atlanta", "country": "United States", "stadium": "Mercedes-Benz Stadium", "lat": 33.7553, "lon": -84.4006, "altitude_m": 320, "climate": "hot_humid_indoor", "tz": "America/New_York" }, { "city": "Boston", "country": "United States", "stadium": "Gillette Stadium", "lat": 42.0909, "lon": -71.2643, "altitude_m": 40, "climate": "warm", "tz": "America/New_York" }, { "city": "Dallas", "country": "United States", "stadium": "AT&T Stadium", "lat": 32.7473, "lon": -97.0945, "altitude_m": 175, "climate": "very_hot_indoor", "tz": "America/Chicago" }, { "city": "Houston", "country": "United States", "stadium": "NRG Stadium", "lat": 29.6847, "lon": -95.4107, "altitude_m": 15, "climate": "very_hot_humid_indoor", "tz": "America/Chicago" }, { "city": "Kansas City", "country": "United States", "stadium": "Arrowhead Stadium", "lat": 39.0489, "lon": -94.4839, "altitude_m": 270, "climate": "hot", "tz": "America/Chicago" }, { "city": "Los Angeles", "country": "United States", "stadium": "SoFi Stadium", "lat": 33.9535, "lon": -118.3392, "altitude_m": 30, "climate": "warm_dry_indoor", "tz": "America/Los_Angeles" }, { "city": "Miami", "country": "United States", "stadium": "Hard Rock Stadium", "lat": 25.958, "lon": -80.2389, "altitude_m": 2, "climate": "very_hot_humid", "tz": "America/New_York" }, { "city": "New York", "country": "United States", "stadium": "MetLife Stadium", "lat": 40.8135, "lon": -74.0745, "altitude_m": 7, "climate": "warm_humid", "tz": "America/New_York" }, { "city": "Philadelphia", "country": "United States", "stadium": "Lincoln Financial Field", "lat": 39.9008, "lon": -75.1675, "altitude_m": 12, "climate": "warm_humid", "tz": "America/New_York" }, { "city": "San Francisco", "country": "United States", "stadium": "Levi's Stadium", "lat": 37.403, "lon": -121.97, "altitude_m": 8, "climate": "mild_dry", "tz": "America/Los_Angeles" }, { "city": "Seattle", "country": "United States", "stadium": "Lumen Field", "lat": 47.5952, "lon": -122.3316, "altitude_m": 5, "climate": "mild", "tz": "America/Los_Angeles" } ], "bracket": { "r32_slots": [ { "match_num": 73, "slot_a": "2A", "slot_b": "2B", "date": "2026-06-28", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Inglewood, CA", "next_match": 90 }, { "match_num": 74, "slot_a": "1E", "slot_b": "3A/B/C/D/F", "date": "2026-06-29", "time": "16:30", "venue": "Foxborough, MA", "next_match": 89 }, { "match_num": 75, "slot_a": "1F", "slot_b": "2C", "date": "2026-06-29", "time": "19:00", "venue": "Guadalupe, Mexico", "next_match": 90 }, { "match_num": 76, "slot_a": "1C", "slot_b": "2F", "date": "2026-06-29", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Houston, TX", "next_match": 91 }, { "match_num": 77, "slot_a": "1I", "slot_b": "3C/D/F/G/H", "date": "2026-06-30", "time": "17:00", "venue": "East Rutherford, NJ", "next_match": 89 }, { "match_num": 78, "slot_a": "2E", "slot_b": "2I", "date": "2026-06-30", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Arlington, TX", "next_match": 91 }, { "match_num": 79, "slot_a": "1A", "slot_b": "3C/E/F/H/I", "date": "2026-06-30", "time": "19:00", "venue": "Mexico City", "next_match": 92 }, { "match_num": 80, "slot_a": "1L", "slot_b": "3E/H/I/J/K", "date": "2026-07-01", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Atlanta, GA", "next_match": 92 }, { "match_num": 81, "slot_a": "1D", "slot_b": "3B/E/F/I/J", "date": "2026-07-01", "time": "17:00", "venue": "Santa Clara, CA", "next_match": 94 }, { "match_num": 82, "slot_a": "1G", "slot_b": "3A/E/H/I/J", "date": "2026-07-01", "time": "13:00", "venue": "Seattle, WA", "next_match": 94 }, { "match_num": 83, "slot_a": "2K", "slot_b": "2L", "date": "2026-07-02", "time": "19:00", "venue": "Toronto", "next_match": 93 }, { "match_num": 84, "slot_a": "1H", "slot_b": "2J", "date": "2026-07-02", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Inglewood, CA", "next_match": 93 }, { "match_num": 85, "slot_a": "1B", "slot_b": "3E/F/G/I/J", "date": "2026-07-02", "time": "20:00", "venue": "Vancouver", "next_match": 96 }, { "match_num": 86, "slot_a": "1J", "slot_b": "2H", "date": "2026-07-03", "time": "18:00", "venue": "Miami Gardens, FL", "next_match": 95 }, { "match_num": 87, "slot_a": "1K", "slot_b": "3D/E/I/J/L", "date": "2026-07-03", "time": "20:30", "venue": "Kansas City, MO", "next_match": 96 }, { "match_num": 88, "slot_a": "2D", "slot_b": "2G", "date": "2026-07-03", "time": "13:00", "venue": "Arlington, TX", "next_match": 95 } ], "r16_bracket": [ { "match_num": 89, "slot_a": "W74", "slot_b": "W77", "date": "2026-07-04", "time": "17:00", "venue": "Philadelphia, PA" }, { "match_num": 90, "slot_a": "W73", "slot_b": "W75", "date": "2026-07-04", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Houston, TX" }, { "match_num": 91, "slot_a": "W76", "slot_b": "W78", "date": "2026-07-05", "time": "16:00", "venue": "East Rutherford, NJ" }, { "match_num": 92, "slot_a": "W79", "slot_b": "W80", "date": "2026-07-05", "time": "18:00", "venue": "Mexico City" }, { "match_num": 93, "slot_a": "W83", "slot_b": "W84", "date": "2026-07-06", "time": "14:00", "venue": "Arlington, TX" }, { "match_num": 94, "slot_a": "W81", "slot_b": "W82", "date": "2026-07-06", "time": "17:00", "venue": "Seattle, WA" }, { "match_num": 95, "slot_a": "W86", "slot_b": "W88", "date": "2026-07-07", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Atlanta, GA" }, { "match_num": 96, "slot_a": "W85", "slot_b": "W87", "date": "2026-07-07", "time": "13:00", "venue": "Vancouver" } ], "qf_bracket": [ { "match_num": 97, "slot_a": "W89", "slot_b": "W90", "date": "2026-07-09", "time": "16:00", "venue": "Foxborough, MA" }, { "match_num": 98, "slot_a": "W93", "slot_b": "W94", "date": "2026-07-10", "time": "12:00", "venue": "Inglewood, CA" }, { "match_num": 99, "slot_a": "W91", "slot_b": "W92", "date": "2026-07-11", "time": "17:00", "venue": "Miami Gardens, FL" }, { "match_num": 100, "slot_a": "W95", "slot_b": "W96", "date": "2026-07-11", "time": "20:00", "venue": "Kansas City, MO" } ], "sf_bracket": [ { "match_num": 101, "slot_a": "W97", "slot_b": "W98", "date": "2026-07-14", "time": "14:00", "venue": "Arlington, TX" }, { "match_num": 102, "slot_a": "W99", "slot_b": "W100", "date": "2026-07-15", "time": "15:00", "venue": "Atlanta, GA" } ], "final_and_third_place": { "third_place": { "match_num": 103, "date": "2026-07-18", "time": "17:00", "venue": "Miami Gardens, FL", "slot_a": "L101", "slot_b": "L102" }, "final": { "match_num": 104, "date": "2026-07-19", "time": "15:00", "venue": "East Rutherford, NJ", "slot_a": "W101", "slot_b": "W102" } }, "source": "FIFA official schedule (Nov 2025 release) + Annex C third-place table" }, "annex_c_misses": 0, "concentration": { "top1_champion_p": 0.30628, "top2_combined": 0.61192, "top5_combined": 0.9344399999999999 }, "model_caveats": [ "Probabilities are Monte Carlo frequencies, not point forecasts.", "Goal model: Poisson regressors + Negative Binomial dispersion + Dixon-Coles \u03c4 correction.", "Knockout bracket follows the OFFICIAL FIFA-published R32-to-final structure.", "Third-place slot assignment uses FIFA Annex C exact lookup (495 combinations).", "Tiebreakers follow FIFA 2026 regulations.", "Simulation ranges (p05/p95) shown across 5 independent MC seeds \u2014 this is sampling noise from independent tournament rollouts, NOT a parameter confidence interval.", "Model does NOT account for: last-minute injuries, refereeing, in-tournament momentum." ], "data_sources": { "match_history": "github.com/martj42/international_results (CC0)", "fifa_rankings": "FIFA Men's World Ranking (live tracker, June 2026)", "schedule": "FIFA.com official 2026 schedule + ESPN article 47108758", "bracket": "FIFA Annex C (Regulations) \u2014 official R32\u2192Final mapping", "annex_c_third_place_lookup": "Wikipedia template + FWC2026 regulations PDF", "squad_values": "Transfermarkt aggregates (Sportingpedia / GiveMeSport, May-June 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